Good morning…
Well, it was a pretty exciting day for me, yesterday.
Obviously, the recent bad weather had me a bit worried about Cheltenham but those worries turned out to be a bit groundless.
I am going to split this morning review into three sections and it seems only proper and correct that I start with Cheltenham.
Cheltenham – Day 1
13:30 – In the first race of the festival we faced, for the first time in the history (albeit, a short history) of the ratings, a conundrum ; one that I knew would happen one day – I just didn’t anticipate that it would happen in, arguably, the greatest festival of the year.
You see, in the 13:30 at Cheltenham, the top two rated horses had the same ADR (the actual ratings number.) When this happens, the code orders those two horses in forecast starting price order. Thus, Kalashnikov and Summerville Boy both had an ADR of 8.75. This is a very high rating and it was obvious that it would be one of these two horses that would win the race.
However, the ratings made Kalashnikov as the top rated horse as it had a forecast starting price of 5.50 and Summerville Boy became the second rated horse as it had a forecast starting price of 8.0.
This was a shame as those two horses did come first and second; unfortunately in the wrong order. If you had spotted the fact that both horses shared the same ADR (and were a long way ahead of the third rated horse which had an ADR of just 1.55) you might have thought about doing a reverse forecast on the top two rated horses.
Had you done so, you would have received a payout of £45.78 to your £2 stakes.
So, not such a bad start to the festival.
14:10 – Well, in this race we so nearly got it right. The top rated horses did what was expected of it and, as is only proper and correct, won the race. Unfortunately, the second and third rated horses did come second and third but…
In the wrong order.
Had you done the combination trifecta on the top three rated horses in this race, you would have had £22.40 returned to your £6 in stakes.
14:50 – In the third race of the day at Cheltenham we could only manage a third place for the top rated horse.
15:30 – I feel slightly disappointed with the results of this race. I was sure that Faugheen (our top rated horse) would win this race as its ratings were far ahead of the other contenders. However, it was our second rated horse, Buveur D’Air (the favourite) which won the race. Our third rated horse, Mick Jazz, had obviously got up early to read the ratings as he, appropriately came third.
16:10 – In the fourth race of the day at Cheltenham, our third rated horse won (at 5.50 ISP) and our second rated horse came third.
16:50 & 17:30 – In the last two races at Cheltenham, we did nothing at all. In the 16:50, Jury Duty should have won as its rating was far, far ahead of the other horses but he unseated the rider. In the 17:30, De Potting Shed (our top rated horse) pulled up – such are the joys of National Hunt racing.
So, to conclude, not too bad a start to Cheltenham but I’d like to think that we can do better today.
System Bets – 5 Easy ways to make money…
From the free systems that I give away on the site (5 Easy Ways to make money from Horse Racing Ratings) we had 4 selections.
Sedgefield 13:55 – Tokaramore – PU
Sedgefield 15:15 – Drums of War – 1st @ 6.0 ISP (7.4 BSP)
Southwell (AW) 17:00 – Dis Gift – 1st @ 3.75 ISP (4.0 BSP)
Sedgefield 17:10 – Peter’s Cousin -2nd (by a head)
The system correctly predicted 2 winners from those 4 races.
Thus, a strike rate of 50%.
To ISP we had 9.75 points returned to the 4 points staked.
This equates to a profit on stakes (to ISP) of 143.75%.
To BSP we had 10.83 points returned (after a 5% commission) to 4 points staked.
This equates to a profit on stakes (to BSP) of 170.75%.
That’s not too shabby. I would have been happier if Peter’s Cousin had found that little extra and won the race but…
He was the odds on favourite (and thus wouldn’t have contributed much to the overall profits.)
And we have to remember that…
Strike Rate is Vanity,
It’s Profits that Count!
Other Racing
From the 28 races, 20 were won by a top three rated horse. This might be a decent enough strike rate for some of you dutchers to take a look at.
From the 28 races, 6 were won by a top rated horse.
The highlights (for me, at least) were as follows…
Sedgefield 13:20 – We got the first two in the right order in this race. The forecast paid £10.12 to a £1 stake.
Cheltenham 13:30 – We got the first two in the wrong order in this race. The reverse forecast paid £47.35 to the £2 stakes.
Cheltenham 14:10 – We got the winner in this race. Our second and third rated horses did come second and third but, in the wrong order. A combination trifecta on this race would have paid £22.40 to the £6 stakes.
Sedgefield 15:15 – Our top rated horse (also, one of our system bets) won this race at 6.0 ISP (7.4 BSP.)Southwell (AW) 15:45 – We got the forecast in this race – unfortunately it only paid £2.51
Newcastle (AW) 18:15 – We got the forecast in this race – unfortunately it only paid £1.32
Newcastle (AW) 19:45 – Our top two rated horses came first and second in this race – unfortunately, in the wrong order. Had you done a reverse forecast in this race you would have had £89.98 returned to your £2 stakes.
Something to make you smile…
Doctor Doctor…
Doctor Doctor I feel like a racehorse.
Take one of these every 4 laps!Doctor, doctor my sister here keeps thinking she’s invisible!
What sister?Doctor, Doctor I’m on a diet and it’s making me irritable. Yesterday I bit someones ear off.
Oh dear, that’s a lot of calories!Doctor, Doctor Can I have second opinion?
Of course, come back tomorrow!Doctor, Doctor you have to help me out!
Certainly, which way did you come in?Doctor, Doctor I keep thinking I’m God
When did this start?
Well first I created the sun, then the earth…Doctor, Doctor I keep thinking I’m invisible
Who said that?
Conclusion
So, not such a bad day, yesterday – although I am hoping for better things today.
For those of you on the current free trial, obviously I am around today. If any of you have any questions, just drop me a mail.
However, yesterday I was rather inundated with emails (not that I mind – in fact, the opposite is the case) so it might take me a little to reply. For those of you waiting on replies to mails you sent me yesterday – I’ll get straight to it as soon as I’ve had my breakfast.
Have a great day’s racing!
As always…
My kindest regards
